By Murungi Ndai
In a landmark shift for Kenya’s agricultural trade policy, the country has formally opened its sugar market to duty‑free imports from COMESA member states following the expiry of the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA) Sugar Safeguard on November 30, 2025. The move, announced in early January 2026, ends 24 years of protection that shielded the domestic industry from unfettered regional competition and marks a decisive transition toward competitiveness and integration within the regional free trade framework.
Kenya first secured the sugar safeguard at the inception of the COMESA Free Trade Area in 2001 to protect its nascent sugar industry from cheap duty‑free regional imports that threatened local producers. Over the next two decades, the safeguard was extended eight times by the COMESA Council of Ministers as Kenya undertook structural reforms aimed at stabilising the sector, improving productivity, and rehabilitating mills.
With the expiry of the safeguard, the Kenya Sugar Board (KSB) and government officials framed the transition not as a retreat but as a confidence vote in the industry’s reforms. KSB Chief Executive Officer Jude Chesire emphasised that the safeguard “had fully achieved its objective as a temporary, reform‑driven instrument,” and that Kenya’s sugar sector is now “stable, well‑managed, and ready to compete within a structured and fair regional market.”
Kenya’s sugar production has recorded significant growth over recent years, reflecting the impact of policy reforms and expanded cane cultivation. National sugar output rose by 76 percent from about 472,773 metric tons in 2022 to 815,454 metric tons currently. This increase was bolstered by a 19.4 percent expansion in sugarcane acreage to 289,631 hectares, supported by favourable weather, improved seed access, and modernised farming practices.
Despite this impressive expansion, national demand still outpaces local production. Kenya’s annual sugar consumption is estimated at about 1.1 million metric tons, leaving a supply gap of roughly 300,000 metric tons that must be met by imports. With the safeguard gone, Kenya will depend on regional and global imports to stabilise supply and moderate price volatility while domestic capacity continues to expand.
Analysts and industry observers expect that the entry of duty‑free regional sugar will exert downward pressure on domestic sugar prices, a development that could be welcomed by consumers after years of sporadic shortages and high retail costs. The broader range of suppliers will also increase competition for local millers as they work to fully optimise their newly leased operations and remaining rehabilitation projects.
However, officials caution that imports will be managed and coordinated to avoid market disruption. The KSB has said that sugar imports will be sourced from both COMESA and non‑COMESA markets, based on availability and price‑stability considerations, reflecting a “balanced sourcing framework” designed to protect food security, market certainty and farmers’ incomes.
Looking ahead, the medium‑term outlook for Kenya’s sugar industry is relatively optimistic. As miller capacity continues to expand and farm productivity improves, the country is projected to meet domestic demand and move toward self‑sufficiency. With further gains, Kenya could transition from a net importer to a regional exporter within the COMESA Free Trade Area, leveraging expanded capacity and competitive pricing to access neighbouring markets.
The expiry of the COMESA sugar safeguard on November 30, 2025 and the subsequent opening of Kenya’s sugar market represents a significant policy shift after nearly a quarter century of protection. While domestic production has grown strongly rising by 76 percent since 2022, a supply gap remains, requiring strategic imports from both regional neighbours like Uganda and global suppliers such as India and Brazil.
Managing this transition will require careful balancing of competitive pricing, stable supply, producer protection and regional market integration. With sound regulation and continued reforms, Kenya’s sugar industry may not only close its production deficit but also emerge as a competitive player in the wider African market.
