Heavy Rains, Dry spell Expected Over Most Parts of Horn of Africa

The IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC), together with National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs), the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), and other development partners, has released the seasonal climate outlook for October to December (OND) 2025.

In terms of rainfall distribution, the strongest signal for below-average rainfall is concentrated in eastern parts of the region, including southern Ethiopia, much of Somalia, eastern Kenya, and areas of central and southern Tanzania.

Conversely, above-normal rainfall is likely in western areas such as south-eastern South Sudan, north-eastern and south-western Uganda, northern Somalia, and sections of northern Rwanda. There is also a high probability—over 70%—of rainfall exceeding 300 mm in parts of western Kenya, southern Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, and north-western Tanzania.

The forecast further suggests delayed rainfall onset across eastern zones, particularly in southern Somalia, central and eastern Kenya, and southern and eastern Tanzania. In contrast, areas such as western Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, and parts of Ethiopia and South Sudan are projected to see an early to normal onset of rains.

On temperatures, the outlook points to a greater likelihood of warmer-than-average conditions across much of the Greater Horn of Africa, especially in eastern areas.

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However, some cross-border zones spanning Uganda, South Sudan, Ethiopia, and Kenya, as well as parts of north-western Sudan, may experience average to cooler-than-usual conditions.

The announcement was made during the 71st Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF 71), which convened experts and decision-makers to review the June–September season and present the consolidated regional forecast for the coming months.

The OND season is one of the most critical rainfall periods for the equatorial Greater Horn of Africa, accounting for as much as 70% of annual rainfall in areas of Kenya and Somalia.

According to the new forecast, much of the region is expected to experience below-normal rainfall, while some pockets, including south-eastern South Sudan and parts of Uganda, may see wetter-than-usual conditions.

The Greater Horn of Africa is at the frontline of the climate crisis. Climate information must reach the last mile, and only through collaboration and early action can we turn forecasts into meaningful messages that drive timely action,” said Mohamed Ware, Deputy Executive Secretary of IGAD.

Kenya’s Cabinet Secretary for Environment, Climate Change and Forestry, Dr. Deborah M. Barasa, echoed this sentiment, stressing the importance of shared responsibility.

CS Barasa said “bridging the early warning gap requires shared knowledge, timely information, and a united regional approach. Kenya remains committed to supporting regional frameworks that strengthen climate resilience across our communities.”

The OND 2025 outlook comes at a time when the region continues to face climate-related risks that threaten livelihoods, food security, and development.