Global trade will hit a record $33 trillion in 2024, a 3.3% growth from the previous year, according to a new report by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD).
This marks a $1 trillion increase despite ongoing economic challenges.
Drivers of Growth: Services Trade Outpaces Goods
The robust performance of trade in services has been a key contributor to this growth, with the sector expanding by 7% in 2024, accounting for half of the total trade increase. Meanwhile, trade in goods grew by a modest 2%, remaining below its 2022 peak.
UNCTAD’s report highlights a widening gap between advanced economies and developing countries.
- Advanced Economies: Led global growth with a 3% increase in imports and 2% rise in exports, supported by stable domestic demand.
- Developing Countries: Struggled, with imports contracting by 1% and South-South trade—commerce between developing nations—declining by a similar margin.
Sectoral Trends: Opportunities and Challenges
Emerging high-demand sectors presented growth opportunities, with:
- ICT Goods: Surging by 13%.
- Clothing: Growing by 14% in Q3 2024.
These sectors underscore the potential for developing economies to diversify their trade and enter value-added industries.
Also Read: 2021 global trade recovery rests on vaccines; says WTO
However, traditional sectors faced declines:
- Energy Trade: Down by 2% in Q3 and 7% year-over-year.
- Metals Trade: Fell by 3% in Q3.
- Automotive Sector: Declined 3% in Q3 but is expected to close the year with 4% annual growth.
Future Outlook: Resilience Amid Challenges
The report remains optimistic about the future, citing stable global growth forecasts and reduced inflation as key factors supporting resilience in trade. These conditions are expected to pave the way for recovery and continued growth in 2025.
To sustain momentum, UNCTAD challenges the importance of leveraging emerging sectors, adopting new technologies, and encouraging developing economies to diversify their trade portfolios.
