Kenya is steadily edging closer to the 2027 General Election, with investors already beginning to read the political mood as campaigns and political rhetoric slowly gather momentum, nearly 15 months before the polls.
Among the sectors closely watching the unfolding political landscape is real estate.
Property experts at Hass Consult say foreign investors remain particularly interested in homes along Kenya’s coastline, even as market players brace for the uncertainty that often comes with election cycles.
A report released on Tuesday by the firm pointed to a growing interest from remote workers and retirees who are increasingly settling in coastal towns such as Diani, Watamu, Lamu and Bamburi, driving demand for property sales in the region.
However, according to Hass Consult co-CEO Sakina Hassanali, property prices in Kenya often soften two to three months before a general election.
She attributed the trend to a cautious approach by buyers and investors who tend to hold back amid fears of possible election-related protests and uncertainty.
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Dangote Refinery in Kenya
At the same time, Hassanali pointed to the potential transformation of the Coast region should the proposed Dangote Refinery project in Mombasa take off.
According to the Financial Times, construction of the multi-billion-dollar refinery could begin towards the end of 2026 if the Kenyan government approves the project. Africa’s richest man, Aliko Dangote, is pushing for the project, a drastic shift from Tanga in Tanzania to Mombasa.
If implemented, “the refinery is expected to significantly reshape the Coast’s economic and property landscape, triggering new zoning patterns and increased commercial activity,” said Hassanali.
The project could also spur growth in port services, logistics, housing and lifestyle developments, while also pushing up land prices across the region.
Areas such as Diani, Watamu and Bamburi have already emerged among the country’s fastest-growing property hotspots, with land prices rising by between 56 and 79 percent between the last quarters of 2020 and 2025, according to the report.
The proposed Mombasa refinery is expected to cost about $17 billion and could take up to ten years to complete.
