Kenya’s tea industry is watching events in the Middle East with growing anxiety, as escalating conflict threatens to disrupt supply chains to some of its most important export markets.
Over the weekend, US-Israeli strikes inside Iran, which killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, triggered fresh military and diplomatic tensions across the region.
In the aftermath, parts of Iranian, Iraqi and Gulf airspace were restricted, while warnings were issued over commercial shipping routes.
For exporters dealing in perishable goods such as tea and coffee, even short disruptions can have serious ripple effects.
Although some air and sea routes remain open, several airlines and freight operators have suspended or rerouted services due to safety concerns and rising insurance costs. That uncertainty is already raising red flags for Kenyan exporters who depend on reliable and timely deliveries.
Tea is Kenya’s leading agricultural export, and Iran has been one of its steady buyers.
In 2024 alone, Kenya exported about 13 million kilograms of tea to Iran, valued at Ksh.4.26 billion, according to the Tea Board of Kenya. Coffee, tea and spices together accounted for more than 90 percent of Kenya’s exports to Tehran, with total exports to Iran standing at roughly $50.8 million last year.
While Pakistan remains Kenya’s largest tea market, accounting for about 34.7 percent of total export volume — countries such as Egypt, the United Kingdom, the United Arab Emirates, and Iran play a crucial supporting role. These markets help absorb supply, particularly in years when production is strong.
Any prolonged disruption in the Gulf region therefore, risks unsettling a delicate balance that supports thousands of farmers and exporters back home.
Also Read: Kenya, Iran set 60-day timeline to end the tea export ban.
Rising Shipping and Insurance Costs
The Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical shipping corridors, is now at the center of the tension. About 20 percent of global oil exports pass through this narrow waterway, along with significant commercial cargo traffic.
Reports of vessel attacks and growing security risks have already led to higher insurance premiums and the withdrawal of some war-risk coverage for ships transiting the Persian Gulf.
For Kenyan tea exporters, many of whom operate on thin margins, higher freight rates and longer delivery times could quickly erode competitiveness.
Producers in countries such as India and Sri Lanka are always competing for the same global buyers, and any cost disadvantage matters.
Kenya has made efforts to diversify its tea markets, reaching 96 countries in 2024, up from 92 the previous year. That broader reach offers some cushion. Still, Gulf markets remain important, especially for premium teas where freshness and delivery timelines are critical to maintaining quality.
Fuel Costs Add Another Layer of Risk
Beyond direct export routes, Kenya also faces indirect risks through energy supplies. The country imports most of its refined petroleum products from Gulf nations including Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Iraq and Kuwait. Much of this fuel passes through the same conflict-affected corridors.
If tensions continue and oil prices climb, Kenya could face higher fuel and transport costs. That would affect everything from farm operations and factory processing to trucking and port logistics. With global oil prices already edging upward after reported attacks near the Strait of Hormuz, the pressure could build quickly.
Kenya and Iran had been exploring expanded agricultural trade for 2025 and 2026, including opportunities in meat and horticulture. Those ambitions may now face delays if instability persists.
For the moment, the greatest challenge is uncertainty rather than outright loss of market access. Exporters must navigate volatile shipping conditions, rising insurance premiums and fluctuating energy prices — all while remaining competitive.
For tea farmers in Kericho and across the highlands, the harvest continues as usual. But the journey from farm to cup now depends not only on rainfall and production, but also on geopolitical developments thousands of kilometres away.
