Credit Rating

Chances Rise of Afreximbank Involvement in Debt Rework, says JPMorgan

The African trade and development lender has been at the centre of a standoff over whether the loans it extended to Ghana and Zambia - two countries that recently defaulted - are in scope for restructuring or not.

The chances of Afreximbank getting involved in a debt restructuring have increased, JPMorgan said on Tuesday, while also upgrading its recommendation on the lender’s bonds to overweight, citing valuations in the wake of the Fitch downgrade.

The African trade and development lender has been at the centre of a standoff over whether the loans it extended to Ghana and Zambia – two countries that recently defaulted – are in scope for restructuring or not.

Fitch downgraded Afreximbank’s credit rating to one notch above junk earlier this month, with a negative outlook, citing high credit risks and weak risk-management policies and pegging Afreximbank’s non-performing loans at 7.1% at the end of 2024.

Afreximbank says that as a multilateral lender it has preferred creditor status, which protects its loans from restructurings in Ghana, Zambia and Malawi.

Also Read: Afreximbank Helps Nigeria Secure $3.3 Billion Crude Oil Prepayment Facility

“If the bank gets involved in a restructuring (the chances of which have increased…), Fitch could downgrade the bank further from IG (investment grade) to HY (high yield) at some point, which could lead to some forced selling of bonds,” JPMorgan said in a research note.

However, the adjustment in valuations on Afreximbank’s 2029 and 2031 bonds following Fitch’s downgrade now made the bonds “attractive” with both maturities trading 75 basis points wide of the average across other BB-BBB rated bonds.

This compensates for the risk of further adverse rating actions on the bank, which are possible, JPMorgan’s Konstantin Rozantsev added in the note.

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Lawrence Baraza

Lawrence Baraza is a dynamic journalist currently overseeing content at Metropol TV Digital. With a keen focus on business news and analytics, Lawrence guides the platform in delivering insightful, data-driven content that empowers its audience to make informed decisions. Lawrence’s commitment to quality and his ability to anticipate market trends make him a key figure in the digital media landscape. His work continues to shape the way business news is consumed, making a significant impact in the field.

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