Trump Tariff Hike Threatens $8 billion in African Duty-Free Exports to U.S.

Africa faces new trade uncertainty following U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to impose sweeping tariff increases on imports, affecting countries previously covered under the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA).

The move could undermine duty-free access for 32 sub-Saharan African countries and hit key exporters like South Africa, Nigeria, and Madagascar.

AGOA enabled African nations to export $8 billion in goods to the U.S. in 2024. But under the new tariffs, African exports will now face a baseline 10% duty, with higher rates for some countries—up to 50% for Lesotho and 47% for Madagascar.

The hardest-hit sectors include apparel, agriculture, and automotive manufacturing.

Exemptions apply to certain raw materials, including oil, gold, and minerals not available in the U.S., shielding some major exporters such as Nigeria and Angola.

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However, countries reliant on manufactured or agricultural exports, such as South Africa and Ivory Coast, face significant exposure.

The unilateral U.S. tariff hike places African trade at a crossroads. While some raw materials like oil, gold, and copper remain exempt, value-added exports—such as South African cars, Ivorian cocoa, and Madagascan textiles—face major disruption.

AGOA, a cornerstone of U.S.–Africa trade since 2000, now risks becoming irrelevant if blanket tariffs are applied.

For countries like Lesotho and Madagascar, where apparel exports to the U.S. drive jobs and GDP, the consequences may be severe.

Trade-dependent sectors employing tens of thousands are now vulnerable. The move could reverse progress in industrialization and threaten foreign investment in export-oriented industries.

With U.S. market access no longer guaranteed, African economies may accelerate diversification efforts and seek alternative trade partners in Asia, the EU, and within the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA).

In the short term, however, the continent’s most vulnerable economies may need targeted support to cushion the blow—and policymakers may press Washington to revisit the decision or expand exemptions.